It is true that I have been spending a lot of time covering the University of Louisville football program even though that I am a Kentucky fan. Some seem to think that this means that I am secretly worried about Louisville beating Kentucky. It couldn't be further from the truth. I have been outlining the trouble that the program is still in at this point and the glaring reasons why, even though Charlie Strong may be good in the future, he won't single handily bring the Cards back from the dead this year.
I think there are five major reasons why the Cats will again be victorious on September 4th and will ruin Strong's debut as well as the debut of the new expanded pizza box.
5. The fan support still isn't there- The last time that I was at a UK/UL football game at Papa John's stadium most of the Cardinal fans were gone from the stadium by the third quarter because they were losing. I fully expect the same thing to happen this year. If Kentucky gets an early lead, the Boo-Hoo Birds will make an early exit back to the parking lot. Yes it will be loud early on, but when the Cards showcase their continued inefficiency on offense and their inability to defend, then the stadium will be emptied of red and the Cats will have the advantage of the cheering section. Louisville fans leaving the stadium en masse was a familiar sight to visiting teams last year. Nothing will change if they lose. Strong or no Strong.
4. Kentucky has superior offensive and defensive lines- The Cats offensive line has 1 senior, 2 juniors and 2 sophomores that will be starting. 3 of those 5 started almost every game last year and the other two started at least one game. That offensive line gave up the fewest amount of sacks in the entire SEC. They also were able to open holes for Derek Locke and Randall Cobb for big plays. The D-line has 2 seniors, 1 junior and 1 sophomore with proven leadership in the form of Ricky Lumpkin, a three year starter.
The Louisville O-line gave up the most sacks in the Big East and was patch work all last season at best. They have no depth at all. They have only 10 linemen compared to UK's 15. Their depth at right tackle is junior Ryan Kessling. And that's it. The D-line was unable to create anything resembling a pass rush all season long. If Demar Dorsey is not allowed on the team, and that is a possibility, then they have the same line that they had last year. Not good.
3. Randall Cobb and Derek Locke- Cobb and Locke make up the most potent part of the Kentucky offense: The Wildcat. When those two line up behind the center then mass confusion is created on defense and the two best athletes on the field for both teams are able to take advantage of that confusion, use their speed and bust it open for big plays. With Louisville learning a new defense, the Wildcat should be effective throughout the game. Kentucky has had a full year to improve this formation and were more and more comfortable with it as the season progressed. Expect a heavy dose of it in the game.
Also, Cobb and Locke have potential to be killer on special teams. Both players have the speed and elusiveness to break one open on a kick off or punt return. Both players can also line up at the wide out spot, catch it out of the back field and Cobb can even throw the ball when called upon. These two guys are a nightmare to scheme against.
2. QB Play- Granted, Mike Hartline isn't Joe Montana but let's look at his stats last year: he was 79-133 passing, 802 yards, 6 TD's, 7 INT's with a QB rating of 114 and a winning record in the games he started. And that was with an all but season ending knee injury coming to him against South Carolina in the fifth game of the season. Hartline is the senior leader and the players are behind him as a starter. He has plenty of weapons to choose from. If he is ineffective they also have Morgan Newton, the sophomore QB that is athletic as any player at that position and has half a year of starting under his belt. Newton also had a winning record as a starter. The combination of these two led the Cats to a winning season and a bowl game.
Louisville's QB situation is bad to say the least. Right now it looks as if Justin Burke will be the starter. He won one game last year in which he played out of four total. He had 3 TD's compared to 5 INT's. Adam Froman lost 5 of the 7 games he started and Will Stein won 1 of three in which he appeared. The three combined for more interceptions than touchdowns and an overall losing record. None of these three players has proven to be a winner.
1. Talent, experience and preparation will overcome everything else- Kentucky is a better team, plain and simple. Most of all of their upperclassmen have been a part of winning teams and bowl teams. The seniors have never lost to Louisville. They are familiar with Joker Phillip's system and are primed to expand on it's success. Kentucky also has the better players. Louisville's most talented players are their receivers and their running backs. The problem is they have nobody to block for them and nobody to throw them the ball. Louisville also has the disadvantage of learning a brand new offensive system and defensive system, which takes time to get used to. Anyone that has ever played football before knows that it is difficult to learn an offensive playbook and a defensive playbook. The upperclassmen at UK have had 3-4 years with the same system and know it very well. Louisville does not have that luxury. They have a lot to learn in a month. It will be difficult to become both mentally and physically prepared in this short amount of time. I think this lack of preparation is going to be what hurts Louisville the most. Look at what happened the last time Louisville was presented with a new coach and a new system. Brian Brohm and his team were beat by a team that was more familiar with their plays and better prepared.
Preparation and talent will win out over emotion. And it's not like Kentucky won't have emotion coming into this game. You can't convince me that the Cards just "want it more" due to Charlie Strong's presence alone. Please. Joker Phillips is just as thankful, humbled, determined and passionate as Charlie Strong is. Joker and his players want a victory just as bad as Strong and the Cards.
Don't believe the Louisville hype.
Boogie, what the hell is the Louisville hype you speak of? They were picked to finish LAST in the Big East, so where's the hype? You mean us Cards fans can't talk about next year's recruits for football like you do all day long for UK basketball.
ReplyDeleteYour point above about how UK beat Louisville in K's first year because they knew our schemes and systems isn't exactly true. If you remember correctly, it was a missed coverage play that gave your Wildcats the victory.
Then, last year's game came down to ineffecient Red Zone scoring and turnovers. U of L's significantly less talented team almost walked out of Commonwealth with the trophy.
So, as bad as Kragthorpe was at X's and O's, the Cards were thisclose to going 2-1 vs the Cats the last three years. But, according to you, it's been a dominating 3 victories, right?
Don't drink too much of the blue koolaid.
The hype I speak of is the hype of many Louisville fans that seem to think that Charlie Strong is going to work some magic and revive the program in one year. It's not national hype, it's fan based hype.
ReplyDeleteI never said the victories were dominating, please point out to me when I commented as such. What I am trying to establish here is that Kentucky SHOULD get a victory against a less talented team and that Louisville fans should hold their horses before annointing Charlie Strong the successor to Bear Bryant, which seems to be going on in many instances.
NO one.....NO one is expecting Coach Strong to bring us another Orange bowl. But what we do expect is a changing of the guard, where being lazy is not acceptable,,,,being late is not acceptable....losing close games that we had in the bag is acceptable. The true fans of UOFL are ready for this change and expect NO miracles. Our football team was demolished into nothingness...but you know even with KragglePOOP we could have won those games. Superior in all areas??? You might need to check yourself for Blue fever??!!
ReplyDeleteAs bad as Krapthorpe was, the Cards almost came away with 2 of 3 victories against the Cats. I guarantee you that if the Cards have multiple Red Zone opportunities this year, Coach Strong with take advantage.
ReplyDeleteGood luck finishing ahead of only Vandy this year, ol' UK "Pussy" Cats.
Hey Boogie....you realize UK is pick to finish 4th in a 6th team race right??? We know we are picked last so we have no where to go but up.....Cellar is Cellar you know?
ReplyDeleteHey, that's two up from the bottom. Not exactly the cellar. I honestly think they have an advantageous schedule and a chance to finish third.
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