Monday, May 10, 2010

Worst Case Scenario: A Series of Hypothetical Situations for John Calipari


So it is rumored that it is an "open secret" that John Calipari has interest in coaching in the NBA again if the right situation occurred. What would the right situation be? I have compiled a list of things that might sway Cal to make the jump (a second time) to the League:
  • Cal would have a chance to coach LeBron James wherever he happens to land as a free agent next year
  • Cal gets a chance to coach former players Derek Rose or John Wall
  • Cal gets paid more money than he already does at the University of Kentucky
  • An ideal situation opens up where he can go to a team that is coming off of a playoff berth and needs little to no rebuilding

There is one team that fits two of the four criteria that have been set and that team is the Chicago Bulls. Cal would get to coach Derek Rose, a player who led Cal to his only national title appearance (vacated). The Bulls are also are fresh off of a playoff series in which they beat James and his Cavaliers one out of five games. The Bulls are a good draft or a big time free agent signing away from being a contender in the East.

The problem is the pay. From everything that I am reading, the Bulls would not increase Cal's salary or even match his current salary at Kentucky. I doubt he leaves a job where he is the highest paid coach in his profession to a job where coaches are paid pennies compared to the players and a place where the past two coaches were fired without batting an eyelash. If that happened to Calipari he would be where he was when he was fired from New Jersey: at a mid-level school that nobody in college athletics really pays much attention to. Kind of like what happened to Rick Pitino when he was fired from Boston and ended up at Louisville.

As for the LeBron question: LeBron's likely destinations are Cleveland, New York and New Jersey. Only one of those teams would be willing to fire their current coach and that would be New Jersey. Caliapri could have a chance to coach LeBron, John Wall and Terrence Williams. Oh, I forgot about that Lopez twin, the one that doesn't look like Sideshow Bob. The problem is that Cal has gotten the boot from the Nets once and let's say that it wasn't an amicable split.

New Jersey stinks and is one of the worst teams in the league. But if they get LeBron and the first round draft pick then they turn into a potential powerhouse. I seriously doubt that both of these scenarios occur and they only have a percentage of a chance to get the #1 pick, thanks to the draft lottery.

New York is the most outside shot. They have a coach there that has proven that he can win when he gets the players that fit his system in Mike D'Antoni. Anything bad going on in New York can still be blamed on the previous administration, much like anything going bad in America right now. The thing is that the "it's the other guy's fault" excuse is quickly becoming old and worn out.

If New York gets LeBron and a high draft pick, fails to make a decent run in the playoffs, then look for coach D to get the boot opening the door for Calipari to walk in and take the reigns in the Big Apple. This, of course, would happen next year.

All of these situations are "what if's" and the worst case scenarios if you are a Cats fan. The fact is that Cal loves it at UK but has openly stated that it is the hardest job that he has ever had in is entire life. He rarely has an off day and has to meet some unreal expectations. Mitch Barnhardt has said he wants to give Cal a lifetime contract extension. Cal welcomes this and even stated that he would do it and would not expect or ask for an increase in his pay. The problem is that coaches are given extensions all the time, lifetime or less, and still that doesn't matter if the coach really wants to go.

In closing I would like to say this: it's 50/50 whether Cal stays or leaves. I am not saying 50/50 this year, I am saying 50/50 during his time at UK. If he gets a title or at least makes it to a NCAA final then the chances that he leaves increases. We all know how Cal loves the bright lights and while there are not lights brighter in college than in Lex Vegas, the lights shine brighter in New York or with working with a superstar.

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