Thursday, September 30, 2010

The Early Bird UK/UofL Predictions

I am giving my football predictions a day earlier than usual because I have big plans for my three day weekend and I won't have time to do it tomorrow. The spreads for both of the games are pretty close.

Kentucky at Ole Miss- The Rebs are 2-2 with embarrassing losses to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. Both at home. Their two wins come against Tulane and Fresno State, a couple of teams that really don't strike fear into the hearts of anyone. But the good news is that Ole Miss is coming off of a game in which they put up big points against Fresno State, 55-28. The bad news is that the Rebs are banged up. Big time. Running back Enrique Davis is out three weeks due to knee surgery, safety Johnny Brown is doubtful with a bruised knee, and corner Jeremy McGee is questionable with a cincussion. Both defensive players are starters.

Kentucky is coming off of an ugly but all too familiar loss to Florida. The Cats have some soul searching to do this Saturday to figure out if they want to salvage what could be a very good season or slide back into the land of mediocrity. If we go by what Joker Phillips is saying then we won't be encouraged. Phillips stated that they have been doing more first team versus second team match ups because they weren't getting challenged by their scout teams. Leaders are stepping up and urging more intensity in practice.

This game will most likely decide whether or not the Cats play in the post season. Ole Miss is already looking down the barrel of a gun at 2-2. They are going to come out ready to play, get above .500, and get a win in the SEC, something neither team has right now. The Cats are a 5 point favorite at this point. Teams have been able to put up points against the Rebs and that is what UK is going to have to do early. If not, look for the Cats to come home to a disappointed fan base in Lexington. The game is a red out for Ole Miss. It's do or die and I think the Cats are up the challenge of going 4-1.

Final Prediction: Cats 27-Rebs 20

Louisville at Arkansas State- I asked the question earlier this week, what big time (I am being generous here) Division I school schedules a home/away series with Arkansas State? Steve Kragthorpe and the University of Louisville Cardinals, that's who. I'll get to them in a minute.

Let's talk about the Fighting Red Wolves first. They are sitting at 1-3 with losses to Auburn, Louisiana Lafayette and Troy. Out of those three Auburn is the only team with a winning record at 4-0. Lafayette is 1-2 and Troy is 2-2. Their lone win is against Louisiana Monroe, another 1-2 team. Their schedule is not what one would call impressive. Yet they are favored by 4 points. So, what's that about? Let me answer that question. Last year the Red Wolves faced a Cardinal team at home that was down, out and totally depleted. The Cards won by a score of 21-13. Ugh. I'm sure that the people setting the spreads are looking at the fact that the Cards are 1-2, the fact that they are in the WORST CONFERENCE IN THE HISTORY OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL, and the fact that they have been bowless for 3 straight seasons.

But this isn't the Kragthorpe era. The Cards have shown some life in their losses. After taking a huge punch from UK they stayed in the game. The game was more lopsided than the score indicated, but they were competitive. They also pushed Oregon State to the brink by coming back from a big deficit by dominating the fourth quarter. But they also struggled against Eastern Kentucky for a bit and OSU has one of the worst defenses in all of the FBS. But the Cards are much improved and I think Charlie Strong has them fighting in situations where in the past they would have laid down and taken it. I don't think we will see a Cardinal loss Saturday. The Cards pull an "upset" by continuing to improve on offense and shutting down a less than stellar Red Wolves attack.

Cards 25-Red Wolves 10

Now I have to go vomit for writing positive things about Louisville.

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