Thursday, June 10, 2010

Click Clack - The First NCAA Dominoe Falls

Nebraska's leaders met in an informal meeting yesterday and decided to accept the invitation of the Big 10 thus leaving the Big 12 and causing a massive NCAA dynamic shift. This will likely set off a chain reaction in the Big 12's Texas/Oklahoma schools to move to the PAC 10.

For the Big 10, this move is all about the Benjamins with the TV contracts, big money market shares, and the Franklins with the inventions, publishing, research, and overall academics.

The Big 10 would stands at 12 schools, so they could be finished. But I don't think they are finished poaching other conferences just yet. The league will likely look East to steal market share and revenue by offering invites to Pittsburgh, Rutgers, and Notre Dame.

The ACC and SEC could pick up the scraps of the Big East and Big 12, with the likes of Kansas and Louisville falling to the scrap heap.

Before you say that one of the major conferences would take Louisville, just ask yourself why the conferences are expanding. It's all about the TV contracts. The Big 10 network gets 88 cents for each household subscriber in a Big 10 market. The Big 10 already has Indiana to get them into Louisville, the SEC has Kentucky which gets them into the Kentucky homes.

While some think the Cards will fly to the South - and I agree that they would in a heartbeat if offered - I don't expect them to be offered. I look for the SEC to fight for West Virginia (WVa/Virginia Market), Virginia Tech (D.C market), and possibly even Baylor (Dallas market). I don't think Florida State or Miami are viable because Florida already owns a state wide market share and bringing them in would slice the pie further.

We should know the outcome in the next 45-60 days according to Notre Dame's Athletic Director, but the results won't be on the field, court, classroom, until the 2011-2012 season or later.

---Update--- Domino #2 fell with Colorado to the PAC-10. Question Marks still go to OK schools and TX.

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