Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Kentucky at Arkansas Preview


And people like to call UK fans rednecks.

Back in the early and mid 90's when I was falling in love with Kentucky basketball there was not a more intense match up than Rick Pitino's Wildcats vs. Nolan Richardson's Razorbacks. The Hogs played the "40 Minutes of Hell" style defense and even went so far as to win a national title in 1994 which made then President and Arkansas native Bill Clinton a happy man. Both teams were national championship contenders every year.

UK was the king of the East in those days and Arkansas was the king of the West in those days. Now Pitino is residing in Louisville and coaching his former arch rival Cardinals. Nolan Richardson was fired due to a steady decline in the W column and increasingly crazy behavior. His son took over for a while until he was fired. Now UK Unforgettable John Pelphry is the coach of the Razorbacks and John Calipari is coaching the Cats. One of these two teams is again a threat year in and year out to win it all and the other is not. I'll let you guess which is which.

Keys to Victory:

Three Point Defense-It seems that the Cats have difficulty guarding the three point play on the road. Alabama, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss all shot season best or close to season best percentages from the three against the Cats. Arkansas has a legit three point threat in guard Rotnei Clarke. Liggins is bigger, faster and stronger than Clarke. He will need to fight through picks to defend his shot. Before South Carolina, UK's previous three opponents shot 32-58 from the three.

Brandon Knight's Play- In SEC home games this season Brandon Knight has 31 assists and 14 turnovers. In SEC road games he has 18 assists and 23 turnovers. It doesn't take a genius to see that Knight has not performed well away from Rupp. His scoring is down on road games as well. Knight needs to get over the hostile SEC crowds and play with a cool head and calm demeanor. He sets the tone for the rest of the team.

Upperclassman Leadership-At home we can count on Darius Miller, DeAndre Liggins or Johs Harrelson to become that fourth guy that can score and play big time basketball. Other than the game Jorts had against Louisville (HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!) the three elders of the team have been ghosts in away games. Miller seems to have the hot hand scoring 22 points in the previous game against South Carolina and 13 points against Mississippi State the game before that one. Both were at home. One of these three needs to come up big tonight to secure a lopsided road win.

Intesity- These Cats have been timid on the road. Coming in with a bad, aggressive attitude willing to pound these guys into the floor will do some good. Teams just aren't afraid when UK comes into their gyms like they were last year. That needs to change tonight.

Last Minute Play- A lot of what has been bugging the Cats on these road losses are breakdowns in the final minutes of a game. The Cats like to dig a whole early, climb out of it only to blow the game by missing (or passing up) open shots, missing free throws or throwing the ball away. The Cats previous loss margins on the road are 4 points at Vandy, 2 points at Florida, 2 points at Ole Miss, 2 points at Alabama and 7 points at Georgia. They were in every one of those games but blew it in the end.

A win will tie the Cats with Vanderbilt for second place in the SEC East. That will make Saturday's revenge game against Florida mean even more than it already does. I know this is a long preview but a win tonight is crucial. I hate to say that given the opponent but it's true. A win tonight does wonders for confidence heading into the last three beastly games.

Prediction: Cats 75-Hogs 62. Thank you South Carolina for giving us the Mojo back.

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