When I was in Vegas last month, the line of this game was Pitt -2.5... this on the exact Mike Hartline was arrested and then suspended for public intoxication. So when I saw the line and that it never shifted after the issue, I thought my money is on Pitt. Sure, Dave Wannstedt had just been fired but he was coaching the game. Sure, Pitt plays in the dismal Big East and we all know how they've done this season. But when you take the 2nd most efficient passer in the SEC and UK's quiet leader and move in backup Morgan Newton to the starter's role - that has to be a 2-4 point swing. I expected that spread to increase to Pitt by 4 maybe 5 points on Newton's new role alone. I was surprised when it didn't.
Well, earlier this week Wannsteadt declared himself ineligible for the BBVA Compass Bowl and coach Michael Haywood was arrested then fired due to domestic violence charges. The point spread changed. But to my surprise it went Pitt -3.5. I expected the last minute coaching challenges to sway the spread by the end of the week back to the -2.5... well it stands at Pitt -4.
So the question then becomes, who's turmoil will cause more trouble? Will the off field issues for the Cats bring on field issues on offense? Will the changing in the guys who never play, but call them cause Pitt to succumb to a pitfall or will they prevail?
My money is still on the Panthers - I'm a realist folks - but I think with the new regime Kentucky will cover the spread. Panthers by 3 31-28.
Projected Stats:
Randall Cobb: 7 for 35 rushing 5 for 45 receiving and 50 yards passing. 2 TDs total
Derrick Locke: 15 for 80 rushing 1 TD
Morgan Newton 15 of 25 passing 145 yards 1 TD
If one or more of these stars comes to play in Birmingham and Kentucky is +1 or better in the turnover department, Kentucky wins.
Go Cats - I'll be glad to be wrong in this instance.
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